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Article
Publication date: 7 September 2010

Xiaoyun Liu, Wanchun Luo, Xuefeng Mao, Xiuqing Wang and Xian Xin

The paper aims to assess the impact of agricultural output changes on the general price level over time with China as an example.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to assess the impact of agricultural output changes on the general price level over time with China as an example.

Design/methodology/approach

A simple numerical global general equilibrium (GE) model of two regions (China and the rest of the world) and three commodities (agriculture, manufacturing goods, and services) is used to assess the impacts of agricultural output changes on the overall economy price changes. The numerical GE model of this paper consists of production, final consumption, and market clear conditions. The results are generated with the GE model calibrated to aggregated China's input‐output tables of 1987, 1997, and 2005.

Findings

The results suggest that China witnessed a declining influence of agricultural output changes on general price changes. The contribution of given agricultural output change on the general price change in 2005 was merely less than 60 percent of that in 1987, which in turn implies that macro policies targeting to curb general inflation via boosting agricultural output will be less effective as those of 20 years ago.

Practical implications

China's policy makers should rely less and less on promoting agricultural output policies to fight against general inflation and should resort to non‐agricultural policies.

Originality/value

The paper argues that the influence of agriculture on the China's general price indices has been weakening along with China's economic development with a numerical GE model calibrated to aggregated China's input‐output tables of 1987, 1997, and 2005.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 September 2011

WanChun Luo and Rui Liu

In recent years, frequent volatility is deeply influencing meat industry, household lives and macroeconomics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the volatility of…

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Abstract

Purpose

In recent years, frequent volatility is deeply influencing meat industry, household lives and macroeconomics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the volatility of Chinese meat price, and provide suggestions on stabilizing the meat market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses (G) ARCH, (G) ARCH‐M, TARCH and EGARCH models to analyze volatility and its asymmetry of Chinese meat price.

Findings

Estimation result of (G) ARCH model shows volatility clustering of meat price. Estimation result of (G) ARCH‐M model shows high risk and low return in beef market. ARCH and EGARCH models estimation results show non‐symmetry of volatility of beef, mutton and chicken price, and volatility caused by falling price is smaller than that caused by rising price.

Originality/value

This paper shows that volatility of meat price can be predicted and Chinese meat market is not perfect, and special attention to the factors causing rise in meat price is necessary.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

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